Market digest: what moved this week
Stocks stayed choppy near the record. SPY dipped early in the week, clawed back to $771 by Thursday, then eased into the weekend — still shy of the all-time closing high of $777.88 set August 13. The BUY signal, open since early April, didn’t move either way.
Nvidia beat, but grew more slowly. Q2 revenue of $96.2B and EPS of $2.22 topped estimates, and Q3 guidance of $108B came in above consensus — but with growth decelerating from 106% to guided high-80s% YoY, the stock chopped rather than ran on the print.
Inflation held steady, not cooler. July core PCE came in at 3.3% YoY, matching expectations and last month’s pace; consumer spending was flat. In-line, not reassuring — the Fed’s target is still a long way off.
Jackson Hole left the market guessing. New Fed Chair Warsh called inflation “concerning” and didn’t rule out a hike, while also declining to commit to one — no new signal, just more uncertainty into September’s meeting.
Gold cooled off. After last week’s breakout to multi-month highs, GLD gave back part of the move as the dollar firmed and Treasury yields stabilized.
Bitcoin was the story of the week. BTC ripped from the low-$70,000s to a fresh high above $80,000 — and then, on the day of publication, the signal flipped to SELL as price pulled back to the high-$70,000s.
New this week: the Bitcoin signal is live. Same system, same rules, zero discretion — now running on BTC alongside SPY and GLD.
Net effect: SPY up 0.47% on the week. GLD down 3.42%. BTC up sharply through Thursday before the pullback that triggered this week’s flip.
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Where all three signals stand
SPY: still a BUY, still holding since April 2 — no flip, no drama, just a system that doesn’t flinch in either direction.
Gold: also a BUY, though this week’s pullback trimmed some of last week’s breakout gains.
Bitcoin (new): the signal just flipped to SELL after a powerful run. It rode the move from $73,032 all the way to a high above $80,000 before pulling back — the system locked in that stretch and stepped to the sidelines.
All three signals, side by side:
Same 8 weeks, indexed to the same starting point — this is what “reads price, not headlines” looks like across three completely different assets at once.
The honest part on gold: this BUY has been open 170 days and is still down 14.14% since it triggered. It’s the same number I published last week, just worse — the system doesn’t round the edges off a rough stretch to make it look better. Same standard of transparency as always.
The honest part on Bitcoin: the signal launched mid-breakout, caught a +6.36% move from $73,032 to $77,677 (Aug 20 → Aug 28), and flipped to SELL on the very day of publication. That’s not a curated result — it’s the actual sequence, published as it happened. Nothing was cherry-picked to make the debut look good or bad, and the fresh SELL now sits at 0 days with no track record of its own yet.
Why this week doesn’t change anything
SPY chopping around near its record didn’t make the system flinch in either direction. A five-week gold rally didn’t stop it from giving back ground normally this week. And Bitcoin’s flip to SELL — arriving on literally the first weekend this signal is public — didn’t get smoothed over, delayed, or explained away. It reads price, not headlines, and it reads all three assets exactly the same way. Next scheduled update: Saturday, September 5, 6:00 AM ET.
As always: this is not investment advice, and I’m not telling you what to do with your money. What I can tell you is what the discipline of the system calls for — follow the signal, don’t front-run the next update, and don’t let one hot week or one flip pull you outside the plan.
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Full transparency: every recent flip
A couple of honest notes: SPY’s current BUY is up +17.31% (up from +16.76% last week — the market ground modestly higher and the signal kept riding it). GLD’s current BUY is down to -14.14% (from -11.10% last week — this week’s pullback erased more than half of the prior week’s recovery). And BTC’s brand-new track record starts with a flip that already happened: BUY → SELL on August 28, right near the price high of the entire dataset shown above. Whatever happens next, it’s on the record.
Why add Bitcoin now
The system doesn’t care what the asset is — SPY, GLD, or BTC, it’s the same mechanical rules applied without opinion. Bitcoin has produced some of the largest gaps between buy-and-hold and signal-following in backtesting, precisely because of stretches like the one that just ended: a fast, emotional run that the system rode without getting greedy, and then exited without hesitation the moment the trend turned. Publishing it live, starting today, means you see every flip from here forward — the good ones and the bad ones, in real time.
A quick favor. If this issue was useful — especially the new Bitcoin signal — please subscribe and share it with a friend who’d benefit from 20+ years of original systematic research. It genuinely helps. Thank you for reading.
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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice or a recommendation, and I am not a registered investment adviser. This publication is for informational and educational purposes only. The signals reflect backtested and now live-tracked quantitative models; past performance, backtested or live, does not guarantee future results. Cryptocurrency is especially volatile and involves risks distinct from traditional securities. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Consult a qualified financial adviser before investing. You are solely responsible for your own decisions.