Market digest: what moved this week
August CPI ran hotter than hoped. Headline inflation came in at 3.4% year-over-year (0.4% month-over-month), with core CPI at 2.4% year-over-year (0.3% month-over-month) — core came in a touch above expectations.
That reinforced bets on a Fed rate hike, not a cut. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows roughly 87% odds of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 16 meeting, with the remaining probability on no change at all — a sharp shift from the cut expectations that were priced in earlier in the summer.
A jump in oil prices added to the inflation pressure, and long-term Treasury yields pushed to some of their highest levels in nearly two decades before easing back late in the week.
Stocks had a rough week. The S&P 500 fell for four straight sessions before bouncing back on Friday; on the week, the S&P lost about 0.6%, the Nasdaq fell about 0.7%, and the Dow shed roughly 425 points. The Dow remains about 4% below its August 5 record close — no new highs this week.
Gold and Bitcoin both pulled back too, consistent with a week that leaned toward higher-for-longer rate expectations rather than the rate-cut optimism some had been pricing in.
All three Patala signals held steady. No flips this week — a rare quiet stretch after last week’s double reversal.
Net effect: SPY down 0.77% on the week. GLD down 1.97%. BTC down 2.90%.
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Where all three signals stand
SPY: still a BUY, still holding since April 2 — 162 days now, up 16.54% since that flip. A hotter CPI print and rising hike odds made for a rough week across the broader market, and SPY wasn’t immune, slipping 0.77%.
Gold: still a SELL, one week in. The signal has avoided a 1.97% decline since flipping last Friday — so far, staying out has been the right call.
Bitcoin: still a BUY, one week in. It’s pulled back 2.90% since flipping back in last Friday, giving up some of the ground gained during the mid-August surge.
All three assets, side by side:
Same 8 weeks, indexed to the same starting point — Bitcoin’s mid-August surge still dominates the picture, even after this week’s pullback.
The honest part on gold: a SELL that’s only a week old doesn’t prove anything yet. It’s avoided a small decline so far, but one good week doesn’t validate a signal any more than one bad week invalidates it — the discipline is in following it regardless.
The honest part on Bitcoin: the BUY that reversed last Friday is now down 2.90% in its first week. That’s the flip side of publishing every signal live — sometimes the very next week tests it immediately, and this was one of those weeks.
Why a quiet week still matters
No flips is itself a data point. SPY’s 162-day BUY didn’t waver despite a down week. Gold’s brand-new SELL didn’t get second-guessed just because it’s young. And Bitcoin’s brand-new BUY didn’t get abandoned after one rough week, even though a rough first week is exactly the kind of thing that tempts people to override a system. Next scheduled update: Saturday, September 19, 6:00 AM ET.
As always: this is not investment advice, and I’m not telling you what to do with your money. What I can tell you is what the discipline of the system calls for — follow the signal, don’t front-run the next update, and don’t let a quiet week or a rough first week pull you outside the plan.
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Full transparency: every recent flip
A couple of honest notes: SPY’s current BUY is up +16.54% (down slightly from +17.44% last week — a down week, some of the recent gain given back). GLD’s SELL is one week old and has avoided a 1.97% decline so far. BTC’s BUY is also one week old and is down 2.90% so far — the newest position on the board, and currently the one under the most pressure.
Why the system doesn’t need a reason to sit still
A quiet week can feel like nothing happened, but it’s the same discipline as a week with two flips: the system reads price, and this week price didn’t cross any of the lines that matter. That’s it. No CPI surprise, no Fed-odds headline, no rough week for stocks gets a vote — only where the price actually is relative to the rule. Some weeks that produces two flips. This week it produced zero. Both are the system working exactly as designed.
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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice or a recommendation, and I am not a registered investment adviser. This publication is for informational and educational purposes only. The signals reflect backtested and now live-tracked quantitative models; past performance, backtested or live, does not guarantee future results. Cryptocurrency is especially volatile and involves risks distinct from traditional securities. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Consult a qualified financial adviser before investing. You are solely responsible for your own decisions.