Market digest: what moved this week
The Fed hiked rates for the first time since 2023. On Wednesday, the FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4.00%. It was almost fully priced in — the CME FedWatch Tool showed >92% odds of exactly this move heading into the meeting.
Chair Warsh struck a measured tone. He acknowledged inflation “remains elevated” but stopped short of promising more hikes, even as the Fed’s own dot plot showed most officials expect at least one more before year-end.
Stocks barely blinked. The S&P and Nasdaq nudged higher on the announcement itself, and the broader market stayed calm through the rest of the week — no dramatic repricing in either direction.
Gold flipped back to BUY on Thursday, the day after the hike, ending a 12-day SELL.
Bitcoin had the wildest week of the three. It dipped toward $76,000 after the Senate blocked the CLARITY Act (a crypto market-structure bill) on Tuesday, then ripped back above $81,000 by Friday after the SEC issued a new “Innovation Exemption” allowing tokenized-stock trading on approved platforms — a rare piece of clearly pro-crypto regulatory news landing the same week as the Fed hike.
Net effect: SPY down 0.34% on the week. GLD up 0.60%. BTC up 5.19%, closing near its highest level since the mid-August surge.
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Where all three signals stand
SPY: still a BUY, still holding since April 2 — 169 days now, up 16.14% since that flip. A first-hike-in-three-years week came and went without shaking the position loose.
Gold: back to BUY as of Thursday, one day old. The prior SELL ran 12 days and avoided a 2.07% decline — a clean exit, immediately followed by a clean re-entry.
Bitcoin: still a BUY, 14 days in and up 1.89% since the flip. This week’s round trip — down to $76K, then back above $81K — happened entirely within an active BUY, no whipsaw required.
All three signals, side by side:
Same 8 weeks, indexed to the same starting point — Bitcoin’s swings dwarf the other two, even in a week it ultimately finished strong.
The honest part on gold: the SELL that opened September 4 lasted exactly 12 days and avoided a 2.07% decline. It closed out the moment the price called for it — the day after a Fed decision, not because of one.
The honest part on Bitcoin: the position that’s been open since September 4 just lived through a 6.6% round trip in a single week — down to the mid-$76,000s, then back above $81,000 — without a single flip. Staying the course through that kind of swing is exactly what “zero discretion” means in practice, not just in theory.
Why the Fed decision didn’t get a vote
A first rate hike in three years is the kind of headline that tempts a lot of people to guess what happens next and trade around it. The system didn’t do that. SPY’s 169-day BUY didn’t move because of a rate decision. Gold’s flip happened a day later, driven by price, not by the announcement itself. And Bitcoin’s volatile week played out entirely inside a position that was already open. Next scheduled update: Saturday, September 26, 6:00 AM ET.
As always: this is not investment advice, and I’m not telling you what to do with your money. What I can tell you is what the discipline of the system calls for — follow the signal, don’t front-run the next update, and don’t let a headline as big as a Fed hike pull you outside the plan.
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Full transparency: every recent flip
A couple of honest notes: SPY’s current BUY is up +16.14% (down slightly from +16.54% last week — a small down week). GLD just opened a brand-new BUY at +0.71%, one day into its track record. BTC’s BUY is up +1.89% (up sharply from -2.90% last week — this week’s rally erased last week’s pullback and then some).
Why a fast reversal isn’t a red flag
Gold went SELL to BUY in under two weeks this time, and some readers will wonder if that means the system is “whipsawing.” It isn’t — it’s reading price the same way every time, and sometimes price moves fast enough that the signal does too. The alternative — waiting for a trend to “prove itself” before acting — is a discretionary judgment call, and this system doesn’t make those. Fast or slow, every flip gets published the same way.
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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice or a recommendation, and I am not a registered investment adviser. This publication is for informational and educational purposes only. The signals reflect backtested and now live-tracked quantitative models; past performance, backtested or live, does not guarantee future results. Cryptocurrency is especially volatile and involves risks distinct from traditional securities. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Consult a qualified financial adviser before investing. You are solely responsible for your own decisions.
Hi .. can u please explain why your 10 SPY flips shown in article dated 9/19 is different from the one shown in the article dated August 1. The returns shown are dissimilar . Thank you