Market digest: what moved this week
Bonds drove the bus. The 30-year Treasury yield pushed up near a two-decade high, rattling both stocks and expectations for the Fed’s next move.
Treasury stepped in. Secretary Bessent doubled the size of long-bond buybacks, from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation — an attempt to calm the bond market that gave stocks a lift into Friday’s close.
Chips got hit. Semiconductors sold off hard mid-week, even after Nvidia backed a large lease commitment tied to OpenAI, as investors grew warier about how the AI buildout gets financed. Nvidia reports earnings next Wednesday, August 26 — the whole sector is bracing for it.
Gold did the opposite. A softer dollar and the Treasury’s liquidity moves sent gold to its highest levels in months, capping a fifth straight winning week.
Net effect: SPY eased off Wednesday’s near-record high, down 1.37% on the week. GLD broke out — up 5.45%.
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Where both signals stand
SPY: still a BUY, still holding since April 2 — no flip, no drama, just a system that doesn’t flinch in either direction.
Gold: also a BUY, and its timing looked good this week as GLD broke out to a fresh multi-month high.
The honest part on gold: this BUY has been open 163 days and is still down 11.10% since it triggered, even after the rally. It ran up hard into early March, gave back a lot of that over spring and summer, and this week’s move is the first real sign of that patience paying off. Same standard of transparency as always — I’d rather show you the number than only publish the wins.
Why this week doesn’t change anything
Two weeks ago, a record high didn’t make the system more aggressive. This week, a bond wobble and a chip selloff didn’t make it flinch either. It reads price, not headlines — good news or bad. Next scheduled update: Saturday, August 29, 6:00 AM ET.
As always: this is not investment advice, and I’m not telling you what to do with your money. What I can tell you is what the discipline of the system calls for — follow the signal, don’t front-run the next update, and don’t let one rough week or one hot week pull you outside the plan.
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Full transparency: every recent flip
A couple of honest notes: SPY’s current BUY is up +16.76% (down slightly from +18.38% last week — the market pulled back, the signal didn’t do anything differently). And this week doesn’t appear in either flip table, because neither signal flipped. Holding steady through a record, a pullback, and a breakout — in two different assets at once — is exactly the point of running this systematically.
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Disclaimer: This is not investment advice or a recommendation, and I am not a registered investment adviser. This publication is for informational and educational purposes only. The signals reflect backtested and now live-tracked quantitative models; past performance, backtested or live, does not guarantee future results. Markets involve risk, including loss of capital. Consult a qualified financial adviser before investing. You are solely responsible for your own decisions.